Ever felt like the odds that bookies give you often don’t reflect the outcome? If you’re a betting enthusiast, you might have experienced this frustration.
You might think that the bookies have an intricate system in place to ensure they give the best odds possible, but in reality, their design is far from perfect. There are several ways for you to take advantage of it and make some money while doing so.
An excellent way to increase your chances of placing winning bets is to look for a bookie’s misconception about the odds of a particular event. A bookie often overestimates or underestimates the outcome of a particular event, and this can give you an edge in betting on that particular event.
This has seen betting systems like value bets become popular among expert and regular bettors over the past few years. In this blog article, you’ll learn what value betting is, how to identify value bets, the different types of value bets, and some of the popular sports for value betting.
What Is Value Betting?
A value bet is a type of bet wherein the probability of an expected outcome is greater than what the bookies expect them to be. This primarily involves searching for odds that give you an advantage over a particular bookie and betting on them.
To put it simply, when you’re betting on a certain event and you realise that the outcome is much higher than the bookie’s odds state, that is essentially a value bet. You can consider value bets as regular bets with some added advantages.
How Can You Determine Value Bets?
You must do thorough research and calculations before you conclude the odds you’re betting on are a value bet. Keep in mind this value bet formula:
Value = (Probability * Decimal odds) -1
Key Points:
- If you get a number above zero, it is a value bet
- If you get a negative number when the odds are high, it is not a value bet
Related: Value Betting Calculator | Kelly Stake Calculator
Value bets tend to occur when new information hits the market. For example, if an important player suddenly gets sent off the pitch due to a red card, the outcome and the odds for that game change according to that information.
Because of this, you can expect that bookmakers will occasionally offer poor odds for certain events. This presents an opportunity to make a profit by betting when the odds are low and winning more than you bet.
What Are The Types Of Value Bets?
There are different types of value bets out there, and it is important to know which type you are making and why value bets can be categorised into three different types:
1. Value Bets On Underdogs
Underdogs are typically seen as the teams with a low probability of winning their respective events. It is why underdogs have higher odds. But generally, underdogs have a much higher chance of losing than what the bookie’s odds state; so you should bet on them. As such, you have yourself a value bet.
2. Value Bets On Favourites
On the other hand, the favourites are more likely to win a particular event. As such, they have lesser odds compared to the previously mentioned underdogs. Generally, favourites have a much higher chance of winning than what the bookie’s odds state which gives you value bets on favourites.
3. Value Bets On Ties
A tie bet is another type of value bet. The operator assumes the probability of two teams ending up in a tie to be much lower than your true probability estimates, so take advantage and place these bets.
Popular Sports For Value Betting
Since value betting favours the sports betting market, any popular sport you can think of can be used for value betting. Some popular sports include the NFL, football, basketball, ice hockey, boxing, horse racing, and tennis. Depending on the sportsbook, you will find that certain sports are more profitable than others.
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Article Tags: Sports Betting, Betting, Betting Strategy, Betting Odds, Sports, Value Betting
