June Total Profit
Racing Strategy Profit: $3,615
NRL & AFL Strategy Profit: $1,100
Total Profit: $4,715
June Racing Summary
Note: All racing stats assume $50 bet per race.
June Racing Commentary
June was the first month of the Platinum membership and had a great month, winning $3.6k profit @ 31% profit on turnover.
We ramped up the number of tips from 80 per month to 234 tips by covering mid-week racing. With mid-week racing (especially greyhounds) there are two reasons why it is harder to win as much profit on turnover when compared with solid Wed and Sat racing.
1) Margin: Bookies price in more “margin” into their books. On Saturday race days the bookies are typically around 120% for a field of ten (you calculate margin by adding up the reciprocals of all runners in a race), whereas in mid-week racing the bookies are typically 130% margin.
2) Volatility: With mid-week racing, especially jumps racing and greyhounds, there is significantly more volatility in the distribution of expected future outcomes. For example, in the jumps all it takes is for a favourite to make one bad jump and they don’t place. In greyhounds all it takes is for a favourite to get an unlucky bump at the start and they finish last. This increased volatility means that there is a larger difference between probability of a win and probability of a place, which ultimately means less edge for us. The profit on turnover in jumps and greyhounds is close to 20%, whereas in horse racing it is just over 30%.
Despite the above challenges, the racing strategy smashed the bookies in June.
The main drawback from covering so many lower level races was that there were far more “No signals”. The long run “No signal” average is 20%, whereas in June it was ~35%. Going forward we’ll be filtering out races that have unappealing looking fields (E.g. big open fields or fields in which there is a very short favourite) so that we can reduce the “No signal” percentage back closer to 20%. This will allow members to be more time efficient.
June Sport Commentary
Sport tips were a little disappointing with only 4 double payouts in the NRL and AFL, but those tips still made $1.1k net profit. Only 1/8 games resulted in a double payout, which is in comparison to the long run expected 1/6 games. We note that in approximately 45% of games there was a significant opportunity to lock in profit at half time, and those who followed the half time hedging tips would have made close to $2k profit.
Looking ahead to July
In July we’ll be continuing the strong momentum of June with a couple of enhancements.
1) Race filtering: As mentioned in the racing commentary above, we’ll be filtering out races that have undesirable looking fields (I.e. less edge) to reduce the % of “No signals”.
2) Less greyhounds/harness/jumps: There will be less tips on these forms of racing as their expected profit on turnover is closer to 20% as opposed to 31% for thoroughbreds.
3) Sport bonus bet tips: We’ll ramp up the number of bonus bet tips per week from 5 to 20. This will help members continuously churn bonus bets with an expected conversion of bonuses into cash of 90%. With more sport opening up post-Covid it’ll get easier for us to find lots of value bonus bet tips.
4) Unit betting education: In July we’ll train you on how to scale and optimise the racing strategy further by using a method that uses “betting units” to yield more edge from the races with the most edge. Stay tuned.
Many more big months ahead.
Cheers,
Joonas
