NBA Season has already started. Punters are on their feet, and sportsbooks, are setting up shop with some great promotions on their sites, especially TAB and Sportsbet. And we’re here to debunk those offers.
In our five years of operation, NBA is the most profitable sport in terms of POT (profit on turnover) on SGMs (same game multis). The results of the past two seasons are in the below table, with the phenomenal headline numbers of 46.18% and 40.79% POT for the last two seasons assuming a 90% conversion of bonuses to cash, and both being profitable years even without any bonus insurance.
To put into context how hard it is to beat SGMs without promo insurance, same game multis are the most profitable product for bookies because:
- The compounding effect of margin: For example, the typical market has 7% margin in it, so if you back three markets with 7% margin the total margin is 1 – (0.93 x 0.93 x 0.93) = 19.6%, meaning you need around 20% of edge just to break even!
- The bookies screw the punter on correlations: This is the stealth edge for bookies in SGMs, the true secret sauce. A good positive correlation example is if you back a team to win INTO a player on that team to score lots of points. The bookies reduce the odds way too much in these positive correlation scenarios. A good negative correlation example, is there you back two players on the same team to score lots of points in a multi. Since if one player scores lots of points there’s less of an opportunity for the other players on the team to score points, the bookies should increase the multi price. They often do increase the price, but nowhere near enough to be anywhere near fair. Again, stealth edge for the bookies.
- Completely irrational pricing models: Sportsbet is one of the better bookies around, but even their same game multi pricing model throws out some interesting prices, almost always in their favour. Check out the below bet slip, in which the total SGM price is actually lower than the price of an individual leg. It’s no wonder the Sportsbet execs specifically called out SGMs as a core profit generator at their annual general meeting last year!
So how can you get the NBA same game multi tips on Edge Alerter?
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