Bonus Bets Performance Report (as at 25/4/21)

by | Apr 25

7 min read

Introduction

Being able to convert bonus bets into cash is important for Edge Alerter members, as approximately 1/3rd of tips result in a bonus bet back. 

As long-term members will know, for the Edge Alerter system’s results, we assume a conversion of bonus bets into cash of 90%. I.e. we assume that members are able to convert a $50 bonus bet into $45 cash over the long run by following our bonus bet tips. 

With the bonus bet tips we primarily focus on Racing, Golf, and Soccer as they often present the best opportunities. 

The Bonus Bet tips system launched in October 2020. 

The results

  • Number of bets: Since we launched the bonus bet tipping service, there have been 710 bonus bet tips. This is an average of 24 per week. 

  • Realised conversion: The realised conversion from bonuses into cash is a spectacular 118.7%. 

  • Profit/Loss on turnover if backing bonus bet tips with cash: +27.5% 

  • Soccer has the best performing bonus bet tips, with a significant conversion of bonuses into cash % of 152%, albeit off a lower sample size. 

  • Racing tips are converting bonuses into cash at 118.2%, and if you simply backed the racing bonus bet tips with cash, you’d be winning at a very impressive 32.4% profit on turnover. We also note that the racing bonus bet tips tend to outperform on days when the regular tips are underperforming (I.e. when the front end of fields underperform, the back ends tend to outperform) which acts as a nice natural hedge for members. 

  • In golf, the “back and lay” strategy is performing solidly at a profit on turnover of 6.7% and converting bonuses into cash at 103%. The back and lay golf strategy continues to be a very user-friendly strategy for bonus bet conversion given that:
    1. We get such a large number of golf bonus bet tips, 
    2. There is a significant diversification benefit in golf as we typically back 3-5 players in the tournament, 
    3. There is plenty of time to get on the golf bonus bet tips. 

Summary

The entire aim of the bonus bet tips is to help members convert bonuses into cash efficiently. 

The average bettor in Australia converts bonus bets into cash at 25% (I.e. a $50 bonus bet into $12.50 cash). We report a 90% conversion in our daily stats as we’re very confident we’ll achieve it, but it’s nice to see that we’re actually converting at 118.7%. 

Stats breakdown

Note: You can find the updated results at edgealerter.com/results (they get updated every couple of days) 

How the bonus bets system works

The racing bonus bet tips model uses the same model that we use with the regular racing tips, so it looks for late price movers on good volume and we then pick off the bookies. The only difference is that it focuses on the $7-20 price range which is optimal for bonus bets. 

The golf model looks at price movers too, however it also utilises a Monte Carlo simulator which uses player and course data to simulate the distribution of outcomes. I was the head of In-Play golf for the Asian time-zone while I worked at Bet365 and one of the things I learnt there was that the punters have a significant bias towards backing favourites, which makes the bookies stay artificially short those favourites, leaving them exposed to players in the $8-40 price range. 

The soccer model: We focus primarily on correct score markets with our soccer model. With correct score markets, the punters have a tendency to back certain correct score markets which in turn makes the bookies shorten these options significantly, leaving them exposed to other, less “popular”, correct score options. 

Any question about this report?

Message me on the details below

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Message Joonas on @Joonas57

Email

info@edgealerter.com

Cheers,
Joonas (Founder of Edge Alerter) 

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