Being able to convert bonus bets into cash is important for Edge Alerter members, as approximately 1/3rd of tips result in a bonus bet back.
As members will know, for the Edge Alerter system’s results, we assume a conversion of bonus bets into cash of 90%. I.e. we assume that members are able to convert a $50 bonus bet into $45 cash over the long run by following our bonus bet tips.
With the bonus bet tips we primarily focus on Racing, Golf, and Soccer as they often present the best opportunities to find good value in the $8-20 price range.
- Number of bets: In the last 4 months, there have been 458 bonus bet tips. This is an average of 26 per week.
Realised conversion: The realised conversion from bonuses into cash is 117.2%.
Profit/Loss on turnover if backing bonus bet tips with cash: +29.2%
Soccer has the best performing bonus bet tips, with a spectacular conversion of bonuses into cash of 146%, albeit off a lower sample size than racing and golf.
While golf is converting at a respectable 94%, if you followed the mid tournament Betfair laying opportunity tips you would have significantly outperformed the 94%, as there continued to be a high number of short priced lay opportunities that got dusted (this is common in golf as the faves tend to be over-backed).
The racing tips have been continued to pleasantly surprise us as a high earner with a 120.6% conversion from bonuses into cash. Based on our modelling we’d only expect to win at around 3-5% profit on turnover. This suggests that the front ends of markets continue to be depressed on big racing promotion days as the weight of the betting flow on promotions is on the front ends of the markets.
If you’d backed the racing tips with cash, you would have earnt an incredible 32.8% profit on turnover. We note that the racing bonus bet tips tend to outperform on days when the regular tips are underperforming (I.e. when the front end of fields underperforms, the back end outperforms) which acts as a natural hedge for members.
The entire aim of the bonus bet tips is to help members convert bonuses into cash efficiently.
The average bettor in Australia converts bonus bets into cash at 25% (I.e. converts a $50 bonus bet into $12.50 cash). We report a 90% conversion in our daily stats as we’re very confident we’ll achieve this in the long term, but it’s nice to see that we’re actually converting at 117.2%.
How the bonus bets system works
The racing bonus bet tips model uses the same model that we use with the regular racing tips, so it looks for late price movers on good volume. The only difference is that it focuses on the $8-20 price range which is optimal for bonus bets.
The golf model looks at price movers too, however it also utilises a Monte Carlo simulator which uses player and course data to simulate the distribution of outcomes. I was the head of In-Play golf for the Asian time-zone while I worked at Bet365 and one of the things I learnt there was that the punters have a significant bias towards backing favourites, which makes the bookies stay artificially short those favourites, leaving them exposed to players in the 2-6 shots back range. Long term, golf remains the best sport for the conversion of bonus bets into cash as members get numerous opportunities to “lay-off” on Betfair between rounds.
The soccer model: We focus primarily on correct score markets with our soccer model. With correct score markets, the punters have a tendency to back certain correct score markets which in turn makes the bookies shorten these options significantly, leaving them exposed to other correct score options.
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Joonas (Founder of Edge Alerter)